Definitions
The following terms are important to know and understand when working with Probable Futures maps and data.
Probable Futures maps and data: Probable Futures maps and data refer to different ways of viewing or interacting with the same datasets, which are climate model datasets. When they are visualized geographically, we refer to them as maps. When they are viewed as numbers, we refer to them as data. They make the most sense when viewed as maps because they are maps of global climate data in different scenarios, so by default we typically refer to them as maps. See the full list of maps on the Maps page or read more about the data on the Probable Futures Data page.
Warming/Climate Scenarios: A warming scenario or climate scenario is a model of the climate. Such models can be created in different increments. The increments are defined by a change in global average temperature from pre-industrial global average temperature. All Probable Futures maps and data have six warming scenarios in increments of 0.5°C. A more detailed explanation of warming or climate scenarios can be found on Understanding climate scenarios.
Grid Cells: To make climate models, climate scientists divide the world on a grid and model the climate within each grid cell with a given climate scenario. The size of these grid cells determines the resolution of maps made with the model: smaller grid cells, higher resolution. Probable Futures maps have a resolution of 0.2° latitude and longitude per side of each grid cell which is approximately the size of a typical city’s metro area, or about 22km squared. This is the highest resolution data we offer because higher resolutions have diminishing returns: if there is a drought in one 22km area, there is also a drought in the 22km area next to it. Read more about the data.
Statistical Percentiles & Range of Values: Every grid cell in every Probable Futures map contains a low, mid, and high value.
| PF Value | Percentile Value | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 5th | Conditions like these should be expected approximately 5% of the time during the given warming scenario. Lower values could also occur in this warming scenario with lower likelihood than this value. For example, in a map of the average temperature, this value would represent a cool year in the location of the grid cell, but not the coolest possible year. |
| Mid | 50th (Median) or Mean Value* | Conditions near this value should be expected in a typical year during the given warming scenario. For example, in a map of the average temperature, this value would represent a typical or moderate year in the location of the grid cell. |
| High | 95th | Conditions like these should be expected approximately 5% of the time during the given warming scenario. Higher values could also occur in this warming scenario with lower likelihood than this value. For example, in a map of the average temperature, this value would represent a warm year in the location of the grid cell, but not the warmest possible year. |