The maps

The Probable Futures maps are climate model data displayed as Mapbox tilesets with a resolution of 0.2° latitude/longitude per grid cell side. To learn more about climate models and the specific models Probable Futures uses, please see About the data and the Science page on probablefutures.org.

All maps

Below is a list of all maps currently published on probablefutures.org/maps. To see this list in a spreadsheet with additional metadata such as map units, tileset IDs, climate model information, and technical descriptions, please see the Probable Futures Public Dataset Inventory.

Map name	ID	Category
Days above 32°C (90°F)	40104	Increasing heat
Days above 35°C (95°F)	40105	Increasing heat
Days above 38°C (100°F)	40106	Increasing heat
Days above 45°C (113°F)	40107	Increasing heat
Average temperature	40101	Increasing heat
Average daytime temperature	40102	Increasing heat
10 hottest days	40103	Increasing heat
Freezing days	40205	Decreasing cold
Frost nights	40202	Decreasing cold
Nights above 20°C (68°F)	40203	Decreasing cold
Nights above 25°C (77°F)	40204	Decreasing cold
Average nighttime temperature	40201	Decreasing cold
Average winter temperature	40207	Decreasing cold
10 hottest nights	40206	Decreasing cold
Days above 26°C (78°F) wet-bulb	40301	Heat and humidity
Days above 28°C (82°F) wet-bulb	40302	Heat and humidity
Days above 30°C (86°F) wet-bulb	40303	Heat and humidity
Days above 32°C (90°F) wet-bulb	40304	Heat and humidity
10 hottest wet-bulb days	40305	Heat and humidity
Change in total annual precipitation	40601	Precipitation
Change in snowy days	40614	Precipitation
Change in dry hot days	40607	Precipitation
Change in wettest 90 days	40616	Precipitation
Change in frequency of “1-in-100 year” storm	40612	Precipitation
Change in precipitation of “1-in-100 year” storm	40613	Precipitation
Change in water balance	40703	Dryness
Likelihood of year-plus drought	40702	Dryness
Likelihood of year-plus extreme drought	40701	Dryness
Change in wildfire danger days	40704	Dryness
Climate zones	40901	Other

Why these maps?

Our process for creating maps involves considering particular phenomena and thresholds that matter to people and civilization. For example, nights above 20°C (68°F) are not comfortable for sleeping without air conditioning. All wet-bulb temperatures below carry some risk to human health for anyone working or playing outdoors. Loss of frost and freezing allow spread of pathogens. Increased precipitation and more severe and frequent storms require more infrastructure to hold and manage rainwater to prevent flooding. Now we welcome you to think of other examples and create tools using these maps. Tools using these maps can help communities, governments, businesses, and individuals prepare for the climate futures that are likely, and work to avoid the ones that carry the most profound risks for our world. We also welcome feedback about these maps and ideas for others.

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Table of contents

• Tilesets
• Map versions