The maps

The Probable Futures maps are climate model data displayed as Mapbox tilesets with a resolution of 0.2° latitude/longitude per grid cell side. To learn more about climate models and the specific models Probable Futures uses, please see About the data and the Science page on probablefutures.org.

All maps

Below is a list of all maps currently published on probablefutures.org/maps. To see this list in a spreadsheet with additional metadata such as map units, tileset IDs, climate model information, and technical descriptions, please see the Probable Futures Public Dataset Inventory.

Map nameIDCategory
Days above 32°C (90°F)40104Increasing heat
Days above 35°C (95°F)40105Increasing heat
Days above 38°C (100°F)40106Increasing heat
Days above 45°C (113°F)40107Increasing heat
Average temperature40101Increasing heat
Average daytime temperature40102Increasing heat
10 hottest days40103Increasing heat
Freezing days40205Decreasing cold
Frost nights40202Decreasing cold
Nights above 20°C (68°F)40203Decreasing cold
Nights above 25°C (77°F)40204Decreasing cold
Average nighttime temperature40201Decreasing cold
10 hottest nights40206Decreasing cold
Days above 26°C (78°F) wet-bulb40301Heat and humidity
Days above 28°C (82°F) wet-bulb40302Heat and humidity
Days above 30°C (86°F) wet-bulb40303Heat and humidity
Days above 32°C (90°F) wet-bulb40304Heat and humidity
10 hottest wet-bulb days40305Heat and humidity
Change in total annual precipitation40601Precipitation
Change in snowy days40614Precipitation
Change in dry hot days40607Precipitation
Change in wettest 90 days40616Precipitation
Change in frequency of “1-in-100 year” storm40612Precipitation
Change in precipitation of “1-in-100 year” storm40613Precipitation
Change in water balance40703Dryness
Likelihood of year-plus drought40702Dryness
Likelihood of year-plus extreme drought40701Dryness
Change in wildfire danger days40704Dryness
Climate zones40901Other

Why these maps?

Our process for creating maps involves considering particular phenomena and thresholds that matter to people and civilization. For example, nights above 20°C (68°F) are not comfortable for sleeping without air conditioning. All wet-bulb temperatures below carry some risk to human health for anyone working or playing outdoors. Loss of frost and freezing allow spread of pathogens. Increased precipitation and more severe and frequent storms require more infrastructure to hold and manage rainwater to prevent flooding. Now we welcome you to think of other examples and create tools using these maps. Tools using these maps can help communities, governments, businesses, and individuals prepare for the climate futures that are likely, and work to avoid the ones that carry the most profound risks for our world. We also welcome feedback about these maps and ideas for others.


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